Projecting emissions one year ahead

The annual release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy gives a first assessment of how the Global Carbon Budget’s 2016 emission projection fared. In short, it did well.

The global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion reported by BP in June 2016 (green), in June 2017 (orange), and by the Global Carbon Budget in November 2016. The Global Carbon Budget emission estimate used UNFCCC data for Annex I (developed) countries until 2014, CDIAC for non-Annex I countries until 2013, and projected emissions forward until 2015 using the latest release of the BP energy data (shown by the green circles) and to 2016 using a variety of methods (white). BP only estimates emissions from fossil fuel combustion (excluding cement production), and we therefore only report Global Carbon Budget results for fossil fuel combustion.