Stylised pathways to «well below 2°C»
Some people love negative emissions, others hate them. Some people think 1.5°C is impossible, others think it is a matter of political will. I think stylised figures are a great way to explain the challenges.
Shell in a low carbon world
Shell has just released a new scenario, Sky, which meets the goals of the Paris Agreement. How does it compare with other low carbon pathways?
Making the carbon budget bigger
A new estimate of the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity means that the carbon budget to stay below 2°C could be much larger.
Have improvements in carbon intensity stopped?
The carbon intensity is a useful indicator, but also fraught with difficulties. Depending on the data choices, the policy implications could be quite different.
2017 in review, and 2018 outlook
What sparked my interest in 2017, and what will raise my eyebrow in 2018?
Oil & gas in a low carbon world
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is often critiqued for being pro fossil fuel and anti-renewables, but are their scenarios so different to those developed by the broader researcher community?
Have we discounted our future?
The large-scale carbon dioxide removal in emission scenarios is becoming better known, but is it just a consequence of high discount rates?
The last drop to stay below 2°C
No one doubts that oil production will go down in a 2°C world, but whether there is place for new oil fields is a far more nuanced discussion.
A forecast of the energy transition to 2050
DNV GL has added a new addition to the energy outlook literature, one that builds a forecast of the ‘most likely’ future leading to around 2.5°C in 2100.
Did 1.5°C suddenly get easier?
A new research paper suggests a rather significant upward revision of the carbon budget for 1.5°C. This is a potential game changer, but it is too early to reformulate mitigation plans.
Do we need carbon capture and storage?
Solar and wind are the flavour of the decade, and carbon capture and storage is having an identity crisis. But, love it or hate it, we need carbon capture and storage to keep below 2°C.
Can we decouple out of the climate crisis?
Carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry flattened in the last few years, and many argue we are now decoupling emissions from economic growth. Is this a success story or an unfortunate use of the concept?
The policy vision to keep below 2°C warming
The science shows that the Paris Agreement requires removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere at scale. We suggest a three-point plan for governments to make progress.
Can we trust emission statistics?
Many have reported that CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry are flat, but we have had a record increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Yes, this is exactly what is expected!
Projecting emissions one year ahead
The annual release of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy gives a first assessment of how the Global Carbon Budget’s 2016 emission projection fared. In short, it did well.
Who is winning the emissions tug-of-war?
Global coal consumption may have peaked, solar and wind have had explosive growth, yet global emissions remain flat. We have a way to go!
0.5°C makes a big difference for mitigation
Keeping global warming below 2°C is hard, but 2.5°C is a walk in the park!
Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement
We have had three years with virtually no growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry. What has caused the slowdown and does this put us on a path to «well below 2°C»?
What does «well below 2°C» mean?
The Paris Agreement calls to hold the increase in the global average temperature to «well below 2°C». What on earth does that mean?
Emissions growth slowdown: Can we now keep global warming under 2°C?
We have had three years with virtually no growth in carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry. What has caused the slowdown and does this put us on a path below 2°C?
